Forex exam Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1500 words

Forex exam - Essay Example (Baillie, R & McMahon, P, 1990). Covered Interest Parity is also known as â€Å"Interest Rate Parity†. This theory is based on the assumption that in an effective market with no transaction cost, the interest difference should be equal to the forward differential. The currency of the country with a lower interest should be at forward premium in term of the currency of the country with the higher interest rate. When this condition is met, the forward mark is said to be at interest parity and equilibrium prevail in the market. Condition for Covered Interest Parity is as follow: The uncovered interest parity propagates that the interest rate differential is equal to the ex-post exchange rate change. Uncovered Interest Parity theory is more difficult to test as because expected exchange rate changes are unobservable, also assumes that there should be no transaction cost, perfect capital flow, equal default risk on foreign and on domestic market. The risk premium should be zero. It is s follow: As all of these theories are based on certain assumption like the market condition has to be perfect, there should be no restriction on free trade, no transaction cost should exist and the investors should be risk neutral. But in the real world, market conditions are not perfect neither free trade is possible. In many countries government imposes certain restriction on import and export of goods for economical welfare of their country. Transaction cost exists in the real world and the investors are not risk neutral; rather the investors are risk averse. So these theories do not hold in the real world. Foreign exchange market has to play a very vital role in the present globalized world. Foreign currency is the life blood which gets exchanged through foreign exchange market. There are many factors which affect the foreign exchange market directly or indirectly and bring efficiency in this market which are as

Human Recourse Management Amounts to Little More Than a Simple Essay

Human Recourse Management Amounts to Little More Than a Simple Reworking of the Human Relations School of Management - Essay Example This essay stresses that there are several factors which have there impact on the growth of the HRM as a field. The main factors are economy and society. During the period of agrarian economy the social structure and economy was very simple. It developed into a complex system during industrial revolution. The social set up changed. There was more emphasis on the productivity. Manufacturing industry contribution to economy decreased in subsequent years and Service Industry experienced growth. The importance of human increased due to the fact that human is important factor in the production and consumption of services. Human resources have been an important factor of production from the agrarian economy. This paper makes a conclusion that the scientific methods of management by Taylor and his stress on efficiency improvement gave food of thought to others. Mayo and others focused on the soft components of workers’ life. These were the psychological and social components. This was the starting of the study of human resource management. Various theories of motivation, leadership, loyalty, perceptiuon, behaviour and others have developed. The contributions of Human Relations School of Management encouraged the managers and leaders to understand individuals’ various needs and develop their human resource strategies on the basis of that. This have demanded for an individual department in the organisations. It is Human Rsource Management department which independently handles the needs and requirements of the human resource. Hu

Management and Leadership development Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Management and Leadership development - Essay Example In almost all firms, the top management is the trend setter and it has to demonstrate a high level of commitment towards the development of a workforce which is flexible, competitive and proactive (Gloet, 2006; Plessis & Beaver, 2010). When a strategic approach of HRM is implemented, it will ensure that HR is the top most priority. HRM is effectively integrated with the company’s strategy, mission/vision and long-term goals (Blackman, O’Flynn & Mishra, 2010; Lengnick-Hall et al., 2009). Strategic HRM is fostering strategic management thinking on all levels. This allows the leaders to be involved in the strategic planning process (Lepak et al., 2006). It is a mechanism employed by leading organisations for developing a workforce plan and determining the priority objectives to be attained. It also focuses on the course of action that can be taken for successful accomplishment of the desired objectives (Jaakson, Tamm & Hammal, 2011; Tahilaramani, 2010; Way & Johnson, 2005). Hence, with proper implementation of Strategic HRM within an organisation, there would be an enhanced and supportive workplace learning environment that can be cultivated. This will ensure that the company has the capability of responding to HR related issues proactively and proficiently (Singh, Darwish & Anderson, 2012). Currently strategic HRM is a major contributing factor in the organisation’s corporate strategy. Therefore, it is imperative for the top management to ensure a proper link between the desired objectives and competency level of the employees (Caliskan, 2010; Way & Johnson, 2005). The main purpose of Strategic HRM is to help the company develop an effective employee or workforce plan. This will assist it in managing the employees effectively (Allen & Wright, 2006; Martin, Gollan & Grigg, 2011). It emphasises the need of coordinating activities at all levels i.e. corporate,

Hagar in The Stone Angel Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Hagar in The Stone Angel - Essay Example On various occasions the hero of a tragedy is given opportunities to overcome his mistakes. Many modern writers have extended the category of a tragic hero and have included a common man who is equally capable of becoming a tragic hero. Hagar, in The Stone Angel is one such example. Hagar is a common woman with self-made dignity. She has a misstep, a tragic flaw, which is her unconquerable pride. As she says â€Å"Pride was my wilderness and the demon that led me there was fear... [I was] never free, for I carried my chains within me, and they spread out from me and shackled all I touched.† Her pride became the cause of her failed relationships with her father, brothers and sons. On various occasions Lawrence makes us understand her proud nature. She would not pretend to be her mother to console her dying brother. The incident ruined her relationship with her brother Matt. Her proud nature became the cause of her poor relationship with her husband. She felt too proud to show her emotions towards her husband. She refused to let John and Arlene stay in her house for the night. She refused to cry at the death of Arlene. â€Å"I shoved her [matrons] arms away.  Ã‚  I straightened my spine... I wouldnt cry in front of strangers, whatever it cost me†. The realization, that her pride came in the way of her son’s happiness, came to her very late. Hagar refused to adjust herself to the circumstances. She would not shift to the nursing home and instead told Doris and Marvin to move out of the house. Her stubborn nature came in the way of her happiness. It led her to her destruction. The tragedy of Hagar is that she refuses to change. Although Hagar and King Lear appear similar in their journey to self-discovery, a major difference becomes evident in the after effects of their epiphanies. Lear is redeemed after his epiphany and pushes away his pride. He reconciles with his daughter and is sent to jail, which does not matter

Workplace Motivation Essay Example for Free

Workplace Motivation Essay The theory of motivation in the workplace is defined as empowering others to perform tasks they would not normally perform. Considering there is a multitude of ideas, theories, and methods promoted by experts in the area of employee motivation, choosing the correct method is daunting. The goal is to select one or combine methods that will motivate employees to excel in the workplace and attempt to increase employees’ personal satisfaction. The challenge in all organizations is to create a perfect balance between employee motivation and how to implement and sustain the program. Positive reinforcement has proven to be one method easily applied in the workplace and is conducive to higher productivity and profitability. However, diligence by the management staff must be required to create and maintain the motivation level of employees. The motivation level of the dispatch department at Prime Satellite had been an issue of contention with the management for many years. The turnover in that particular department exceeded any other department in the company. Admittedly the job was a stressful and frustrating position. These employees were also the least paid per hour than other employees at the company therefore, the massive turnover problem. I had been employed as the technical customer service manager for six years at this time. My department and the dispatch department worked closely to maintain a high-level of customer service. Observing the constant stream of new employees in the department and low morale, I suggested changes to the owner. The owner asked me to become the dispatch manager to correct the situation. The first change was in the recruiting and hiring process. The previous candidates for the position had not been selected on a specific skill set because the job duties were undefined. The job required a person who could understand technical information in addition to possess excellent communication skills. These employees had to relay detailed information not only to satellite technicians but also customers. The most important skill the employees required was intrinsic motivation because the employees would have to work autonomously once they were trained. Understanding the job duties, the company began hiring more competent people. The pay was increased by two dollars an hour to recruit the talent to create a fully functioning and productive department. The first change to the training procedure was to engage the employee to discuss her ambitions and her expectations from the company. I thought this was important to create a dialogue and a sense of belonging. A history of the company was explained to each new hire. This became important because the employees could envision a future with the organization. The business was rapidly expanding and the new employees were encouraged to participate in the exciting possibilities. The next change was in the training process. The department had five employees who required retraining. This action was not received with enthusiasm by four of the five employees. The lack of motivation and low morale of the department had created an environment of apathy. Therefore, retraining was futile. I recruited and hired four new employees within the first two months of managing the department. The new environment was happy, positive, and creative. I could not authorize monetary rewards. However, praise and recognition are free. This created a team of motivated and positive people because teamwork does not depend on monetary compensation. The sense of belonging provided the employees empowerment over their daily duties. Employee satisfaction correlated with the productivity of the department with an increase of 150% within 90 days of implementing the new policies. The humanistic view of motivation may have critics but in this situation the theory proved to be effective. The new procedures were not without pitfalls. Each employee had her own work ethic, cognitive skills, and level of motivation. Learning each employee’s characteristics and habits assisted me in learning how to discipline and reward each individual. This challenge proved to be one of the most rewarding experiences in my work experience because I believe in self-actualization and encourage it in others. The employees were encouraged to develop new skills and techniques to improve their own performance. They were the people performing the job on a day-to-day basis therefore each employee’s suggestion was considered to develop new strategies to eliminate repetition and enhance productivity. The more the employees became engaged in creating procedures, assumed responsibility, and provided feedback the more motivated they were to perform. The incentives the employee’s enjoyed could not be monetary but developed into a sense of worth and accomplishment. Remember, this was not an easy job. The employees had to speak to frustrated, angry technicians, customers, and salespeople. The stressful situation required diffusing on occasions. In those situations, the best solution became a long break and discussion. The employee would be taken to a quiet area of the office and allowed to vent, complain, or just talk through the stressful situation. This not only relieved the stress for the employee but also gave her the sense of validation that the company understood and most important cared about her well-being. I had created a team of people who worked for low pay yet had high motivation because of one simple fact; they were treated with dignity and respect. They were dedicated to perform to the best of their abilities because they could not let the team down. The previous attempts to increase employee retention in the dispatch department failed because the manager used fear to control the employees. He used the old scenario of â€Å"they get a paycheck, what more could they want† method. This extrinsic motivation technique did not apply to this situation of this company or any other. People need more in their workplace than a paycheck. They need to believe they are doing something worthwhile to be intrinsically motivated. What happened next in this organization will validate the last statement. The ownership of the company changed. The changes to the culture of the entire organization were profound and created a cognitive dissonance. The focus of the new administration was the bottom line and nothing else. Promises were not kept and threats of joblessness prevailed. Motivation plummeted. Extrinsic motivation was the only motivation for all the employees. The new method of motivation was not sufficient to retain the best employees. Benefits were curtailed, bonuses and raises were suspended, and recognition was nonexistent. The Expectancy X value theory was destroyed for those employees who depended on that type of motivation. Praise for a job well done became extinct because the new owner decided it was not necessary. The exclusive reliance on extrinsic motivation will fail if intrinsic motivation no longer exists. The employee retention problem returned with vengeance. Within the first 90 days after the new ownership, the department lost three of its best employees because the support for self-actualization ceased to be an important factor. Humans do not tolerate negative changes to their environment such as the workplace. If a hygienic environment becomes confused with misinformation, distrust, and lack of security it will become toxic. This became a very toxic workplace for all involved. Obviously, this was not the correct motivational theory to apply. The company closed one year later. Motivation is imminently important to any organization whether it be business, school, social group, or a family. The more humane and positive the motivation, the more productive anyone or anything will become.

Gatorade - Marketing Project Essay Example for Free

Gatorade Marketing Project Essay The Gatorade Company makes the world’s leading sports drink. In part, this is due to its ubiquitous marketing strategies that can be seen almost everywhere. Gatorade is the official sports drink of the NBA, WNBA, MLB, NHL and MLS. It is also the official sports drink of the NFL and has become part of a famous tradition, the â€Å"Gatorade Dunk† where the winning athletes of the Super Bowl empty the Gatorade cooler over the coach. Gatorade has also been advertised by some of the greatest athletes in history; from Serena Williams, to Peyton Manning, to Olympic gold medalist Usain Bolt, to probably the most famous endorser in NBA great Michael Jordan. Gatorade makes several products including the G series which consists of pre-game, thirst quencher and post-game beverages. There is also the G Series Pro which consists mainly of sports nutrition products. Then there is G Natural which contains more natural ingredients. The Gatorade Company also makes Propel Fitness Water. The Gatorade Company was not always such a large company nor was it created by an existing beverage corporation. It was created as a necessity by the team in which it’s named after: The University of Florida Gators. Gatorade was created in 1965 by a team of five scientists led by Dr. Robert Cade. The beverage was created to improve the athletic performance of the university’s football team. When more than a dozen of the players had fallen sick due to dehydration from the intense heat and training, the scientists researched dehydration and what the body loses during immense activity. They found out that sugars, salts and minerals were required to hydrate the human body after immense physical activity; water alone was not enough. They created an electrolyte-carbohydrate drink and supplied it to the athletes. The results were phenomenal. The Gators were able to outperform their rivals, especially in the latter half of the game where exhaustion seemed to cripple their opponents. The Gators went on to win their first Champion ship and soon after Gatorade was adopted by other sports teams. Supplying the beverage became more and more difficult for the scientists as demand increased, and after failed attempts to commercialize it, Stokely-Van Camp acquired U. S. rights to the drink and Gatorade Inc. was incorporated in Florida in 1967. After much success, the coach of the Florida Gators suggested the winning formula to the coach of the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs were impressed and used throughout the entire season culminating with a Super Bowl victory. Much of the growth of the Gatorade Company occurred when it was acquired by Quaker Oats, which bought Stokely-Van Camp for $220 million in 1983. It was under Quaker Oats that Michael Jordan, who was arguably the most famous and fast rising athlete at the time, became the celebrity spokesperson for the company. Sales skyrocketed and Gatorade was once again the leader as the sports drink market grew to $1 billion by 1994. Also during its ownership by Quaker Oats, the product went global. It was and continues to be sold in numerous countries and several continents successfully. It also expanded its product line to include more flavor varieties. Towards the end of the 1990’s the sports drink market grew to $2 billion. With its consistent success, Gatorade continued to launch new products including Propel Fitness Water. In 2000, PepsiCo, a multinational corporation focusing on beverages and snacks, acquired Quaker Oats for $13 billion. It bought over Quaker Oats primarily for the Gatorade brand, which is still one of the corporation’s largest and most successful divisions. Gatorade continued to grow because it renewed its contract with Michael Jordan, campaigned its â€Å"Is it n you? † ad, and also signed a host of new celebrity athletes. Today, Gatorade has over a dozen plants where it manufactures the products it sells and is still the leader in today’s $3 billion dollar sports drink market. Target Market Description The original target market for Gatorade was sports teams. In fact, it was originally only sold to sports teams. It spread from the Gators football team to other Gators teams such as basketball. It then spread to other college sports teams until finally it reached professional teams in the NFL. It spread team to team until it became the official sports drink of the NFL in 1983 and was used by over 70 divisions and college teams. Sales trends increased with the same rapid pace. In the early 1980’s Gatorade led the $200 million sports drink market. Net sales were recorded at $90 million in 1982 and grew exponentially in the following years. By the mid 1980’s net sales were recorded at $170 million. During the latter half of the 1980’s Gatorade marketed its famous Gatorade is Thirst Aid for that deep down body thirst, this along with televised adds, strategic placing of the product on sidelines during big games and a growing sports drink market raised net sales to nearly $900 million by the end of the decade. The demographics of the Gatorade G Series target market: * Traditionally active males, aged 18 to 25. They can be students, just starting their careers, or well established. * They grew up idolizing many different sports athletes and teams, which still have an influence. * They make a very wide variety of incomes because Gatorade is inexpensive. It could be anywhere from $10,000 to $60,000. * Education could vary also, most have at least high school level education and some have college or above experiences. * These types of consumers may also be interested in other sport-related clothing and accessories. They may be interested in terms such as jerseys, hats, shoes or anything that will show off their allegiance to a team, sport or player. * The G Series core target is the 13- to 17-year-old high-school athlete, while G Series Pros target is the 16- to 24-year-old who is in the business of being athletic, whether as an elite athlete or personal trainer. A more detailed look at the MRI report gives a great glimpse into the target market for the sports drink industry. As highlighted in the index, 18-24 year olds are the core target market. With an index of 174, that means 74% of that age range are more likely to drink sports drinks. Moving further up the age range, 18-49 year adults provide a tremendous opportunity for this market. As highlighted by their percent down (which indicates the percent of those persons out of everyone that consumes a variable), 78. 2% of the total population that drank sports drinks were of that age group. Capturing the teen consumer has been identified as a priority for the brand, with the CMO of Gatorade, Ms. Robb-OHagan, conceding that teens thought the brand was dated. Last years shift to G was meant to grab their attention. With that accomplished, she said, the brand has been working with teens to test and promote the new products. Through May, a mobile locker room is making its way to high schools, showcasing the G Series products. What were focusing on this year, from a marketing standpoint, is making sure that the high-school athlete understands the G Series, understands the three-part series, Mrs. Robb-O’Hagan said. If we land that strongly with the teen consumers, we have a lot of opportunity. A Reporter Report is complete with explanations of key numbers. Please note that all the numbers are based on the 2009 Fall MRI study, and that the projected numbers (000) are expressed in thousands. (Appendix A). Market Trends and Macro Forces According to the Beverage Marketing Corporation, the sports drink industry has actually shrunk in sales by 12. 3% from 2009. Considering that Gatorade holds over a 70% market share of the entire sports drink market, they saw losses in gallons produced by 15. 5% in that same year. In a more local look at the market, from 1986 to 2009, the geometric growth of the industry in America has been 11. 62%. However, considering the great growth for the first 19 years of its existence from 1986 to 2005 of 14. 3%, this number might be misleading. A more accurate picture can be painted by using the last 5 years, letting the state of the economy be fully reflected in growth. In this new scenario, the growth is at -. 27%. Gatorade markets not only to the athlete, but to the casual drinker as well: construction workers, restaurants, and families for dinnertime. Sales records for the sports drink brands for the year 2009 and 2010 are available in the Appendix B. Market Trends Changing Needs Gatorade being a sports drink primarily focuses on the needs of the athletes. The researchers believe that the athletes are looking for pre and post workout drinks. The average consumer is already consuming during the before-and-after occasion, said Sarah Robb-OHagan, chief marketing officer at Gatorade. Different consumers have different nutritional needs on game day vs. training days. What weve seen as weve developed these products is different consumers mixing and matching their own regime to meet their needs. In addition, in order to build long term brand loyalty Gatorade is focusing on target high school students between the ages of 13-17 years. What were focusing on this year, from a marketing standpoint, is making sure that the high-school athlete understands the G Series, understands the three-part series, she said. If we land that strongly with the teen consumers, we have a lot of opportunity. What are also sparking the changing needs in this market trend are consumers increasingly focusing on their health. They are conscious about the effects of beverages on their own bodies. According to Mintel, a consumer packaged goods monitoring service, some of the product areas with the highest growth were in the sports and meal replacement categories, which place a greater emphasis on nutrition. More beverage companies are focusing their attention on adding new nutritional benefits to their new products, promoting a product’s ability to enhance sports performance. As the consumers are growing increasingly conscious about the contents of the sports drinks and the needs of the athletes are changing, so is the change in formulations of sports drinks. It is getting even more complicated. Sports nutrition companies are looking at low glycemic sugars as functional sugar systems to enhance endurance in certain products. These include newer functional sweeteners, such as isomaltulose and trehalose. Gatorade has risen to this challenge of balancing innovation with market needs. Beverage World selected Gatorade as the Winner for Brand Reinvention when it released the G-Series which includes the three products: Prime, Perform and Recover for before, during and after work out respectively. Macro Forces There are many macro forces that affect the sports drink industry. Among the most toxic is the current state of the economy. As we have discussed earlier, the poor spending power of consumers has shifted demand to less expensive alternatives, such as water or vitamin infused drinks. As the recession begins to lag into the next year, the sports drink industry can expect sales volume to remain at current levels. Given that the U6 rate (the most comprehensive form of unemployment that combines both unemployed and underemployed) is at 17%, discretionary income will continue to be a hindrance on this industry. While our competitor analysis is fully developed in the coming sections, it should be pointed out now that competition plays a significant role in this industry’s macro forces. Currently, there are two main competitors, Gatorade and Powerade, or Pepsi and Coke, respectively. Unfortunately there is no room for consolidation in this domestic saturated market, so the competitive battles that spur between the two eat away at costs and sales. A recent example comes from a lawsuit between these two companies. An article in the Beverage Industry relating to the industry issues reported a clash between Coca-Colas Powerade and Pepsi-Colas Gatorade on a lawsuit over brand advertising. At issue was a Powerade Option ad that featured a drag race between horse-drawn carts, one of which was carrying 10 bales of hay and the other 50. The message was that 10-calorie Option allowed the 10-bale horse to win the race over the 50-calorie competitor. The lawsuit argued the ad sent the message that Powerade was more effective as a sports drink, as well as containing fewer calories. The matter was resolved in a matter of days, with Coca-Cola agreeing to modify the ad. Such trivial pursuits between the two are costly to the industry and companies themselves. In addition to the direct competitors, sports drinks are facing increased competition from bottled water like Vitamin Water and coconut water and nutritional drinks like skimmed milk and chocolate milk for hydration and nutrition. Coconut water, skimmed milk and chocolate milk are easy to produce and provide natural health benefits compared to the artificial electrolytes in popular sports drinks like Gatorade. While health concerns have had positive effects on the industry, there are also some negatives as well. A new study done by researchers at The University of Iowa suggests that the sports drink Gatorade erodes teeth faster than a carbonated soft drink. I dont think everybody realizes how erosive these things are, especially Gatorade and Red Bull, Leslie A. Ehlen, a student at the University of Iowa School of Dentistry tells WebMD. People need to be aware that all sorts of beverages can be causing dental erosion. Of course, this leads right back to another macro force in regulator procedures. Although in know will health issues like this loom over the industry’s ability to sell their products, the F. D. A (food and drug administration) can certainly dampen sales volumes if need be. The F. D. A has recently banned production of Four Loko as it the combination of caffeine and alcohol mix is extremely dangerous.

Methods for Increased Discernment of Deception

Methods for Increased Discernment of Deception Getting to the Truth A Review of Information Gathering for the Purpose of Establishing the  Veracity of Certain Events with Recommendations for Application In consideration of the not simply punishing the guilty but in addition, for the purpose of the prevention of further crime, law enforcement officials have a significant need for information from witnesses and suspects. This information must, above all, be accurate and it must be gained by a legal means in a means that can be implemented often without extensive personnel or expense in a timely manner. Interestingly enough, despite the general regard of being regarded as â€Å"experts† and â€Å"professionals† in the information gathering business and despite varying degrees of training or experience, numerous studies have demonstrated than nearly all police officers perform at nearly the same levels as untrained civilians as they both tend to hover only slightly above that of a pure chance of 50/50. Though these studies produce somewhat varying rates, it is important to not that there is little consistent validity that certain populations are demonstrably better at dete cting deception than untrained or chance selections (Vrij 2004, p. 159; Vrij, et al. 2004, p. 283; Kassin Gudjonsson 2004, p. 37; Mann, et al. 2004, p. 137). In gathering information, the label of â€Å"interrogation† is attached to processes if the person being questioned is viewed as a primary suspect while the more benign term of â€Å"interview† attaches to those viewed as simply a witness, potential witness or other information gathering purpose. In light of this, one might rightly assume that the chief difference in this labeling of process is the presumptions of the interviewer or interrogator. In the process of interrogation, there is generally an assumption of guilt or at least culpable knowledge for which it is quite possible for induced interviewer bias to play a significant role in the outcome (Wright Allison 2004, p. 138; Gudjonsson 1992, p. 14). This bias is evident through the reply of one police officer in regards to this issue that, â€Å"†¦ we don’t interrogate innocent people† (Kassin Gudjonsson 2004, p. 36). Though it could be called an off-the-cuff remark, this is fairly typical of t he extent of bias that would likely result in a false-positive type error stemming from the subsequent behaviors such as attempts at â€Å"forcing† the subject to â€Å"talk† by not necessarily physical means (Memom, et al. 2003, pp. 57-58). Why People Lie To answer such a question, we might just as well ask, â€Å"Why do people tell the truth†? While these are simply two sides of the same coin, the question brings us no closer to the answer except that there are a potential myriad reasons yet by viewing it in this manner, some insight is possible. For example, in teaching values to groups to young people, one method to force the consideration of ethics is to ask the question, â€Å"Why one should not steal?† This purposefully leading question generally gets responses that either indicates an element of fundamental morality such as, â€Å"Because it is wrong†¦Ã¢â‚¬  or, alternatively, some variant of a fear of getting caught and the ensuing punishment. Similar to this, in consideration of the question of â€Å"why people lie†, the same tenets likely apply, that is they do so to escape punishment or other consequences or perhaps they do so based on the idea similar to the proposition of â€Å"the lesser of t wo evils† as might be the case when one tells an altruistic lie to protect another or to save a relationship (Memom, et al. 2003, pp. 10-11). In studies on lying, aside from the fact that it occurs more than one might think, there seem to be, in the minds of those who tell a lie, different types or degrees of lying depending on the stakes, the outcome and the person(s) deceived (Memom, et al. 2003, pp. 10-11). For example, if a â€Å"good thing† such as a job comes from a lie, it is more acceptable than a theft that occurs by deception. While this is likely how many people think, it is nonetheless a very slippery slope and the â€Å"good† done to one and the â€Å"harm† to another is quite debatable, depending on if one is the victim or the perpetrator. On method of gaining insight into the decision to tell a lie that assumes rationality, that is a conscious decision that a lie is in their calculated best interest, is to utilize the combined approach of motivation theory with the same type of payout ratio analysis used in decision risk modeling. With regards to motivation, one applicable model is that of Vroom’s Expectancy Theory in which the willingness of a person to perform some action is mediated by the interaction three variables (Dreher Dougherty 2002, pp. 34 – 36): Valence – The degree to which the outcome is desired. Instrumentality – The extent to which successful performance would result in the desired outcome. Expectancy – The likelihood of being able to perform a given task. In evaluating business decisions, companies will often construct a formal payout analysis in which the likelihood of positive outcome is weighed against the payout of success and the payout of failure. For example, the company that has a 50% chance of striking gold in a certain mine whose value is $10M but costs $1M to discover, regardless of success should rationally pursue this option which has a projected payoff of $4M (.5 x $10M less $1M expense). While this process of decision-making is easily illustrated utilizing financial examples, the fact that a decision has value to an individual is appropriate. Thus, when a person chooses to lie, they have consciously or not, evaluated their options and, from their perspective made a choice that lie outweighs the payoff of truth against the two possible â€Å"costs† of lying, that of the lie not being believed and that of being caught not telling the truth (Gonjonsson 1992, p. 21). Thus, by seeking to understand â€Å"why† a nd â€Å"how†, one can effectively understand â€Å"who† which aids the investigator to get inside the head of the person being questioned (Douglas Olshaker 1999, p. 17). The Problems of Confessions As indicated previously, the situational context of the interrogation process combined with the fact that police officers most likely have some degree of training in conjunction with the experience of dealing with deception extensively in their daily work yield the predictable result of â€Å"disbelieving people who are innocent with a great deal of confidence† (Kassin Gudjonsson 2004, p. 33). The well-documented presence of interviewer bias creates this situation in which only statements that support the interviewers already held beliefs (Wright Allison 2004, p. 139). This process, in an estimated 30% of the roughly 60% of cases that in which someone confesses, leads to an eventual confession of â€Å"something† culpable (Loftus 2004, p. I; Gudjonsson 1992, p. 50; Pearse, et al. 1998, pp. 1 – 2). Like the variance in the studies citing the ability to detect a lie, there are variance indications of the extent to which false confessions are given with the true n umber difficult to measure (Memom, et al. 2003, p. 76). Despite the problems in getting a true assessment of the problem, there is agreement that certain types of people are much more likely to confess than other groups. For example, youth or those who suffer from some mental disorder or diminished capacity are â€Å"prone†¦ to provide information which is unrelable, misleading or self-incriminating† (Pearse, et al. 1998, p. 2). In data collected on real-life police interviews with the accompanying real-life consequences, research revealed four generally applicable predictors of the likelihood of a confession (Pearse, et al. 1998, pp. 9 – 13): Age – 60% of confessors in this inquiry were under 25 while 60% of deniers were over 25. Drug Use within the last 24 hours was just over 3x as likely to confess. The presence of counsel reduced the rate of confessions by  ¼ the rate as when no counsel was present. Prison or previous documented criminal experience decreased the odds of a confession by  ½ as naà ¯ve subjects. With this information, it is possible to implement practices and procedures by which the pursuit of truth by managing situations in which false confessions due the subjects succumbing to perceived pressure to come up with something that will be â€Å"rewarded† is possible. These practices should likely include (Memom, et al. 2003, pp. 82 85): Using more information gathering-type approaches rather than â€Å"tricky techniques† designed to elicit a confession. Record all interviews and interrogations. Include legal counsel that do more than simply point out administrative issues but act in the interest of the client. Identify and require an â€Å"audit† of particularly at-risk persons. Require additional evidence to corroborate a confession. Discernment Techniques: Raising the Odds of Detection Perhaps most striking about the detection of deception is that there is no standard â€Å"Pinnochio’s nose† or nonverbal behavior that exists to signal an intent to deceive (Vrij 2004, p. 160; Memom, et al. 2003, pp. 11 – 12). This fallacy is one in which people superimpose how they might feel with how they think another should feel and, with this in mind, other indicators of deception will be examined Most people are somewhat familiar with the typical lie detector which utilizes subtle changes in autonomic measures such as galvanic skin responses, heart rate, blood pressure and respiration as correlates of an emotional response to a specific stimulus indicated the subject is concealing knowledge. Under controlled conditions, with a trained operator and a voluntary subject, accuracy rates as high as 95% have been claimed, this apparatus in no longer acceptable in court a a sole source for conviction (Gilbert 2004, pp. 138 – 140; Memom, et al. 2003, pp. 21 – 25; Bennett Hess 2001, pp. 160 – 161). The use of polygraphs as well as electroencephalograms (EEG) to record the autonomic responses to questioning have made to the detection of deception, specifically the attempt to hide specific knowledge, much more difficult. As the brain is very much an organ characterized by the transmission of electrical impulses, its activity is correlated to the conscious and unconscious information it processes. One very specific component of the brainwave, upon stimulation by a question or picture, evokes an excitation in brain wave patterns to the degree that a novel meaningful stimulus can be discerned by the researcher, regardless of what the subject claims. This component, dubbed the â€Å"P300† as it is positive in direction and it occurs 300 milliseconds after stimulation, can be defeated through specific means but for the usual criminal type that does not read journals of physiopsychology, it is a very reliable detector of cognitive effort to deceive (Rosenfeld, et al. 2004, pp. 2 05 – 206). This insight is somewhat complimentary to a less equipment-intensive method in which the interviewer pays close attention to the level of cognitive effort the subject is using. This is based on the reasonable assumption that a liar, in keeping their story straight, must work harder to construct a believable falsehood (Kassin Gudjonsson 2004, p. 39; Bennett Hess 2001, p. 160). In a truthful recollection, it is possible that details may be remembered at one point and omitted in another but the story retains the same essence. This is especially observable when the subject is questioned in a way that takes the elements out of sequential order; the difficulty in getting the details consistent takes considerable effort and is not always successful. This method of deception detection is dubbed â€Å"implicit† as one is considering the element of cognitive effort required to â€Å"keep the story straight† rather than simply if they are lying or not in order to determine the v eracity of the statement(s) made (Vrij 2004, p. 172). Complimentary to this and working in the investigator’s favor is that the subject in most likely not aware of what the police know and is thus at a significant disadvantage with regards to knowing how much information to disclose and how much to withhold (Vrij 2004, p. 170). Similarly, the focal point of the investigation should be upon what the subjects says and, to the degree possible, what the subject does not say through apparent efforts to conceal knowledge. In conclusion, as a result of both seeking to understand the â€Å"how† and â€Å"why†, a law enforcement official can better determine the ultimate culpability for a crime. In consideration of this information the following are presented as suggested methods for increased discernment of deception: Keep an open mind – As indicated, the common view that subjects are lying only â€Å"when their lips are moving† is strong evidence of interrogator bias and is likely to find exactly what the interrogator is looking for†¦ regardless of the truth. You are not interrogating Pinocchio – A belief that liars fidget may or may not hold. The subject may be nervous as this could be their first questioning. They may have been drinking†¦ ad infinitem. Do not interrupt, do not release information unless necessary – The fact that they do not know what you know is a very good thing. This information asymmetry works to both gather more information and better evaluate it. Do not look at the person’s face Facial clues are unreliable, person to person, and a layer of misleading data upon the real focus, the content of the interview. Though nonverbal clues may be present, research indicates that content issues such as omissions or inconsistencies are most likely where clues reside. Consider the amount of effort the subject is using – By using the implicit method of deception detection, more reliable, valid assessments are possible than simply trying to determine if the subject is lying. Record the interview – This is recommended not just for later review and protection of all involved but such as step allows the interview to focus on the content. Works Consulted Bennett, W.W., and Hess, K.M. (2001). Criminal Investigation, 6th edition. Stamford, Connecticut: Wadsworth/Thomson Learning. Douglas, J. and Olshaker, M. (1999). The Anatomy of Motive. New York, New York: Pocket Books. Dreher, G.F., and Dougherty, T.W. (2002). 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